tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 75 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 8 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Developing Delay SFO departures

Model raises SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 56%

Current state
Developing
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 56% delay risk for SFO departures 9 AM–noon Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 106 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 10:00 AM PST · 22.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 18:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 53%

    What changed: 56% → 53% since the 10:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Friday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 5:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 106 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 5:00 PM PST · 14.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 02:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 56%

    What changed: 53% → 56% since the 5:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 106 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST · 13.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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