tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 86 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MDW departures

Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 63%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 7:27 PM CST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View MDWFlights at MDW

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 69% delay risk for Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)69% over 29 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 5:00 PM CST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 63%, near normal

    What changed: 69% → 63%; calm-weather level 57%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 57%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)63% over 29 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 6:00 PM CST · 1.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?