tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MSP departures

Model lowers Minneapolis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 31%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 2:56 PM CST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Minneapolis departures 3–6 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 3–6 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 69 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 5:00 AM CST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 11:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Minneapolis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 34%

    What changed: 46% → 34% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 3–6 PM Friday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)34% over 69 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 6:00 AM CST · 7.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Minneapolis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 31%, near normal

    What changed: 34% → 31%; calm-weather level 25%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 3–6 PM Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)31% over 69 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 2:00 PM CST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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