Model raises expected cancellations to about 83 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Friday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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- Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 14 cancellations among LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Friday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 105 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~13.7 over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 6 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Friday
What changed: about 14 → 6 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 105 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.5 over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 10:00 AM EST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 15:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Friday
What changed: about 6 → 16 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 105 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~16.4 over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM EST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 18:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 13 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Friday
What changed: about 16 → 13 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 105 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~12.5 over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM EST · 2.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 20:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Friday
What changed: about 13 → 21 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 105 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~21.1 over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM EST · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 20:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 83 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Friday
What changed: about 21 → 83 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 83 of the 105 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (79%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~83.0 over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Fri Nov 13, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.