Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among LaGuardia departures 9 PM–midnight Friday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 5 cancellations among LaGuardia departures 9 PM–midnight Friday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 31 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.3 over 31 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM EST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 20:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among LaGuardia departures 9 PM–midnight Friday
What changed: about 5 → 21 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 30 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (69%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~20.8 over 30 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST · 4.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?