Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 55%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 65% delay risk for LaGuardia departures 6–9 PM Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 PM Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 66% over 98 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST · 21.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 01:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 55%
What changed: 65% → 55% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST · 14.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 55%
What changed: 55% → 55% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST · 14.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 08:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 55%
What changed: 55% → 55% since the 3:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST · 13.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?