Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 32%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 4:58 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 41% delay risk for LaGuardia departures 9 AM–noon Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 AM–noon Friday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 113 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 8:00 PM EST · 11.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 02:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 52%
What changed: 41% → 52% since the 8:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 AM–noon Friday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 52% over 113 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 10:00 PM EST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 03:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday at 39%
What changed: 52% → 39% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 AM–noon Friday an average 39% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 39% over 113 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST · 5.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 32%, near normal
What changed: 39% → 32%; calm-weather level 14%
Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 AM–noon Friday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 32% over 113 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?