tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 79 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Developing Delay LGA departures

Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 56%

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 67% delay risk for LaGuardia departures 3–6 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 3–6 PM Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)67% over 90 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 4:00 PM EST · 22.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 21:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts LaGuardia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 53%

    What changed: 67% → 53% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 3–6 PM Friday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 106 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST · 11.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 08:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 56%

    What changed: 53% → 56% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 3–6 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 106 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 09:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?