tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 80 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay LGA departures

Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk 6–9 AM Friday to 25%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 11:58 PM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for LaGuardia departures 6–9 AM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 110 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 AM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 110 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 8:00 PM EST · 8.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 02:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers LaGuardia departure delay risk 6–9 AM Friday to 25%, near normal

    What changed: 42% → 25%; calm-weather level 9%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 110 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 AM Friday an average 25% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)25% over 110 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 11:00 PM EST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 04:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?