tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Developing Cancellation LGA departures

Updated model now expects about 9 among LaGuardia departures noon–3 PM Friday

Current state
Developing
Started
Latest activity
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 12 cancellations among LaGuardia departures noon–3 PM Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 101 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~12.4 over 101 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 1:00 AM EST · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 06:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 9 among LaGuardia departures noon–3 PM Friday

    What changed: about 12 → 9 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 101 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLGA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~9.0 over 101 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST · 8.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 08:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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