Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among LaGuardia departures 9 AM–noon Friday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 10 cancellations among LaGuardia departures 9 AM–noon Friday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 113 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.2 over 113 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 8:00 PM EST · 11.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 02:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among LaGuardia departures 9 AM–noon Friday
What changed: about 10 → 15 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 113 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~14.5 over 113 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 9:00 PM EST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 02:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 23 among LaGuardia departures 9 AM–noon Friday
What changed: about 15 → 23 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 23 of the 113 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~22.9 over 113 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 10:00 PM EST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 03:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among LaGuardia departures 9 AM–noon Friday
What changed: about 23 → 11 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 113 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.6 over 113 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 11:00 PM EST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 04:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 21 among LaGuardia departures 9 AM–noon Friday
What changed: about 11 → 21 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 113 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (19%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~20.9 over 113 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 1:00 AM EST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 06:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among LaGuardia departures 9 AM–noon Friday
What changed: about 21 → 10 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 113 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.9 over 113 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST · 5.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among LaGuardia departures 9 AM–noon Friday
What changed: about 10 → 18 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 113 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LGA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~18.0 over 113 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 7:00 AM EST · 0.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Fri Nov 13, 9:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.