tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 230 h staleForecast cycle 60 minLightning 230 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (230 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (230 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant New Delay TPA departures

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Tampa departures 6–9 PM Friday

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Create monitor View TPAFlights at TPA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Tampa departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Tampa 6–9 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetTPA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 44 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 8:00 AM EST · 8.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 14:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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