tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 73 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay ATL departures

Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 84%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 53% delay risk for Atlanta departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 212 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Friday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 212 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 3:00 PM EST · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 84%

    What changed: 53% → 84% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 212 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)84% over 212 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Nov 13, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.