tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 82 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 8 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay ATL departures

Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 94%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Atlanta departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 159 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetATL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 159 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 3:00 PM EST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 82%

    What changed: 50% → 82% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 159 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 82% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetATL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)82% over 159 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 94%

    What changed: 82% → 94% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 143 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 94% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetATL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)94% over 143 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 6:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.