Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 21%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 3:27 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 140 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 AM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 48% over 140 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM EST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 02:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 AM Saturday to 21%, near normal
What changed: 48% → 21%; calm-weather level 10%
Tailodds’ model gives the 140 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 AM Saturday an average 21% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 10%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 21% over 140 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST · 2.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?