Updated model now expects about 17 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 24 cancellations among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 261 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~24.4 over 261 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 03:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 37 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 24 → 37 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 37 of the 260 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~36.6 over 260 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 17 among Atlanta departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 37 → 17 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 260 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~17.5 over 260 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST · 5.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?