tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 81 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 8 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay ATL departures

Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Saturday to 78%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 58% delay risk for Atlanta departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Atlanta midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetATL departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 17 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 10:00 PM EST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 03:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Atlanta departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Saturday to 78%

    What changed: 58% → 78% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from Atlanta midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetATL departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)78% over 19 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sat Nov 14, 12:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.