Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Saturday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 7 cancellations among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 140 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.3 over 140 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST · 9.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 01:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 20 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 7 → 20 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 20 of the 140 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~19.6 over 140 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM EST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 02:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 25 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 20 → 25 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 142 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~25.4 over 142 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM EST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among Atlanta departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 25 → 10 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 140 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.4 over 140 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST · 2.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?