Updated model puts Atlanta departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 32%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Atlanta departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 179 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 49% over 179 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Atlanta departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 32%
What changed: 49% → 32% since the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 179 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Saturday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 32% over 179 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST · 8.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?