tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 2 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Significant New Delay STL departures

Model forecasts 54% delay risk for St Louis departures 6–9 PM Friday

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 54% delay risk for St Louis departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)54% over 33 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 2:00 PM CST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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