tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Major Developing Delay STL departures

Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 90%

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 63% delay risk for St Louis departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)63% over 15 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 2:00 PM CST · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 90%

    What changed: 63% → 90% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 90% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)90% over 15 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?