tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 88 minLightning <1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation MSP departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View MSPFlights at MSP

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 8 cancellations among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 107 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~7.6 over 107 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 4:00 PM CST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Friday

    What changed: about 8 → 15 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 104 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~15.3 over 104 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Nov 13, 6:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.