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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation MSP departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 AM Saturday

Current state: Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started: Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST
Latest activity: Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST
Updates: 4

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Updates oldest first

Initial Forecast Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST

Model expects about 5 cancellations among Minneapolis departures 6–9 AM Saturday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 85 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	MSP departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~5.5 over 85 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST · 9.0 h ahead
Model version	famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST
Ingested	Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST
Published here	Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST (2026-11-14 02:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Fri Nov 13, 11:56 PM CST

Updated model now expects about 8 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 AM Saturday

What changed: about 5 → 8 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM CST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 88 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	MSP departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~8.5 over 88 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM CST · 6.1 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
Source event time	Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM CST
Ingested	Fri Nov 13, 11:56 PM CST
Published here	Fri Nov 13, 11:56 PM CST (2026-11-14 05:56 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 2:57 AM CST

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 AM Saturday

What changed: about 8 → 5 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM CST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 87 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	MSP departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~4.6 over 87 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM CST · 3.0 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM CST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 2:57 AM CST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 2:57 AM CST (2026-11-14 08:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST