tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 1 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 61 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 1 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MSP departures

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
Create monitor View MSPFlights at MSP

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 102 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sat Nov 14, 9:01 AM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.