tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 74 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation MSP departures

Updated model now expects about 10 among Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View MSPFlights at MSP

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 6 cancellations among Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 103 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.2 over 103 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 10 among Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 6 → 10 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM CST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 103 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~9.5 over 103 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 8:00 AM CST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 14:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sat Nov 14, 9:01 AM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.