Updated model puts Minneapolis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday at 54%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Minneapolis departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 43% over 20 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM CST · 11.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Minneapolis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday at 54%
What changed: 43% → 54% since the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 20 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?