Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Saturday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 6 cancellations among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 96 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.5 over 96 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 6 → 10 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 95 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.9 over 95 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM CST · 3.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 20:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 10 → 15 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 94 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~14.6 over 94 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM CST · 3.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 20:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 15 → 18 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 95 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (19%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~18.4 over 95 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 PM CST · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 21:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 18 → 11 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 94 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.0 over 94 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM CST · 1.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 22:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 6:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.