tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Developing Delay MSP departures

Updated model puts Minneapolis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday at 55%

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Minneapolis departures 3–6 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 3–6 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Minneapolis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday at 55%

    What changed: 51% → 55% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 3–6 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 8:00 AM CST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 14:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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