tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay MSP departures

Model raises Minneapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 57%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 55% delay risk for Minneapolis departures noon–3 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 84 departures scheduled from Minneapolis noon–3 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 84 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Minneapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 53%

    What changed: 55% → 53% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 84 departures scheduled from Minneapolis noon–3 PM Saturday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 84 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST · 4.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Minneapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 57%

    What changed: 53% → 57% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from Minneapolis noon–3 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 85 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 7:00 AM CST · 3.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.