tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Developing Delay MSP departures

Model raises Minneapolis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 56%

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 96 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 6–9 PM Saturday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 96 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 7:00 AM CST · 9.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Minneapolis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 56%

    What changed: 52% → 56% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 96 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 6–9 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 96 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 8:00 AM CST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 14:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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