Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 AM Sunday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 6 cancellations among Minneapolis departures 6–9 AM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 88 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.2 over 88 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 PM CST · 10.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 01:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 6 → 9 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 88 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.1 over 88 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 PM CST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 02:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 13 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 9 → 13 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 88 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~12.9 over 88 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 9:00 PM CST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 03:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 13 → 8 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 88 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.4 over 88 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM CST · 4.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 8 → 11 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 88 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.8 over 88 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST · 0.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.