tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay MSP departures

Model raises Minneapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 57%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Minneapolis departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Minneapolis noon–3 PM Sunday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 118 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Minneapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 57%

    What changed: 51% → 57% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Minneapolis noon–3 PM Sunday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 118 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 9:00 AM CST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 15:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sun Nov 15, 12:00 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.