Model lowers Minneapolis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 47%
- Current state
- Developing
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Minneapolis departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 30 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 9:00 AM CST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 15:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Minneapolis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday at 55%
What changed: 41% → 55% since the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 30 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 10:00 AM CST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Minneapolis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 55%
What changed: 55% → 55% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 30 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 11:00 AM CST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Minneapolis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 47%
What changed: 55% → 47% since the 11:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 47% over 30 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 12:00 PM CST · 7.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 19:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?