tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Developing Delay MSP departures

Model lowers Minneapolis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 52%

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Minneapolis departures 3–6 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 3–6 PM Sunday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)49% over 76 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Minneapolis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday at 57%

    What changed: 49% → 57% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 3–6 PM Sunday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 76 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 9:00 AM CST · 5.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 15:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Minneapolis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 52%

    What changed: 57% → 52% since the 9:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 3–6 PM Sunday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 77 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 12:00 PM CST · 1.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 19:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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