tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation MSP departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among Minneapolis departures noon–3 PM Sunday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 8 cancellations among Minneapolis departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 118 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~7.8 over 118 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 1:00 AM CST · 9.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 08:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 11 among Minneapolis departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    What changed: about 8 → 11 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM CST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 118 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~11.4 over 118 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 9:00 AM CST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 15:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among Minneapolis departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    What changed: about 11 → 13 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM CST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 118 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~13.1 over 118 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 10:00 AM CST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 15, 12:00 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.