Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 6 cancellations among Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 107 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.6 over 107 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 9:00 PM CST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 03:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 6 → 11 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 107 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.3 over 107 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM CST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 04:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 15 among Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 11 → 15 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 107 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~15.1 over 107 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM CST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 05:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 15 → 11 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 107 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.7 over 107 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM CST · 7.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 11 → 11 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 109 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.8 over 109 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM CST · 6.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 11 → 11 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 109 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.2 over 109 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 2:00 AM CST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 08:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 11 → 8 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 109 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.5 over 109 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 3:00 AM CST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 8 → 5 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 108 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~4.8 over 108 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM CST · 1.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 5 → 11 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 109 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MSP departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.4 over 109 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 8:00 AM CST · 0.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 14:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sun Nov 15, 9:00 AM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.