tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay MSP departures

Model lowers Minneapolis departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 31%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 12:57 AM CST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 103 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Minneapolis departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 56%

    What changed: 52% → 56% since the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 11:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 102 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 11:00 PM CST · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 05:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Minneapolis departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 31%, near normal

    What changed: 56% → 31%; calm-weather level 11%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSP departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)31% over 101 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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