tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation BOS departures

Updated model now expects about 12 among Boston departures 6–9 AM Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
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Create monitor View BOSFlights at BOS

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 8 cancellations among Boston departures 6–9 AM Saturday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 104 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~7.6 over 104 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST · 9.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 12 among Boston departures 6–9 AM Saturday

    What changed: about 8 → 12 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~12.2 over 101 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 9:00 PM EST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.