Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Boston departures noon–3 PM Saturday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 7 cancellations among Boston departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 63 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.5 over 63 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST · 8.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Boston departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 7 → 3 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 64 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.1 over 64 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Boston departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 3 → 8 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 64 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BOS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.2 over 64 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM EST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?