Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Boston departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
- Current state
- Developing
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 5
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model expects about 6 cancellations among Boston departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 109 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BOS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.5 over 109 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM EST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 02:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 10 among Boston departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 6 → 10 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 108 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BOS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.6 over 108 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among Boston departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 10 → 13 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 107 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BOS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~13.4 over 107 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST · 5.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Boston departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 13 → 6 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 107 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BOS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.8 over 107 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Boston departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 6 → 14 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 106 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BOS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~14.0 over 106 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM EST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?