Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 25%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 12:57 AM CST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Midway departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MDW departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 47% over 40 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 25%, near normal
What changed: 47% → 25%; calm-weather level 13%
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 25% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MDW departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 25% over 40 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?