Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among Miami departures 3–6 PM Saturday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 8 cancellations among Miami departures 3–6 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 88 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.5 over 88 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 10 among Miami departures 3–6 PM Saturday
What changed: about 8 → 10 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 89 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.4 over 89 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among Miami departures 3–6 PM Saturday
What changed: about 10 → 7 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 89 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.2 over 89 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Miami departures 3–6 PM Saturday
What changed: about 7 → 9 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 89 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.0 over 89 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM EST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among Miami departures 3–6 PM Saturday
What changed: about 9 → 12 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 90 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.9 over 90 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 3:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.