tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 73 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay MIA departures

Model raises Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 59%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View MIAFlights at MIA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Miami departures noon–3 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 107 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 08:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 59%

    What changed: 51% → 59% since the 3:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)59% over 107 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.