Updated model puts Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday at 57%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 72 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM EST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 53%
What changed: 41% → 53% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 53% over 72 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday at 57%
What changed: 53% → 57% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 57% over 72 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?