Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Miami departures noon–3 PM Saturday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 7 cancellations among Miami departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 106 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.8 over 106 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 14 among Miami departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 7 → 14 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 107 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~14.3 over 107 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM EST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among Miami departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 14 → 10 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 106 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.2 over 106 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST · 3.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Miami departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 10 → 11 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 106 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.1 over 106 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM EST · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.