Model raises Indianapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 60%
- Current state
- Developing
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 55% delay risk for Indianapolis departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target IND departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 31 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST · 4.8 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 12:10 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Indianapolis departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 60%
What changed: 55% → 60% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target IND departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 60% over 31 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST · 3.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?