tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 68 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay IND departures

Model raises Indianapolis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 68%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View INDFlights at IND

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Indianapolis departures 3–6 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetIND departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 30 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST · 7.8 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 12:10 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Indianapolis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 68%

    What changed: 44% → 68% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Saturday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetIND departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)68% over 29 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST · 0.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 19:22 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 3:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.