Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among LAX departures 3–6 PM Saturday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 6 cancellations among LAX departures 3–6 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 108 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.4 over 108 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM PST · 8.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among LAX departures 3–6 PM Saturday
What changed: about 6 → 13 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 108 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~13.2 over 108 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM PST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among LAX departures 3–6 PM Saturday
What changed: about 13 → 18 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 110 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~18.2 over 110 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM PST · 2.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 20:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among LAX departures 3–6 PM Saturday
What changed: about 18 → 12 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 110 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~12.4 over 110 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM PST · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 20:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?