Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among LAX departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model expects about 6 cancellations among LAX departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 78 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.4 over 78 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM PST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 18:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 9 among LAX departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
What changed: about 6 → 9 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 78 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.9 over 78 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM PST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 20:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among LAX departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
What changed: about 9 → 14 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 78 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~13.8 over 78 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 PM PST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 23:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among LAX departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
What changed: about 14 → 9 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 79 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.8 over 79 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM PST · 3.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 01:25 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 9:00 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.