Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among LAX departures 6–9 AM Sunday
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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- Latest activity
- Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 10 cancellations among LAX departures 6–9 AM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 122 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.2 over 122 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 PM PST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 03:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 15 among LAX departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 10 → 15 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 123 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~14.5 over 123 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 PM PST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 04:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 20 among LAX departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 15 → 20 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 20 of the 123 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~20.4 over 123 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM PST · 6.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 13 among LAX departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 20 → 13 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 122 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~13.5 over 122 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM PST · 5.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among LAX departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 13 → 12 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 127 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~12.0 over 127 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM PST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among LAX departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 12 → 6 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 127 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.1 over 127 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 3:00 AM PST · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sun Nov 15, 6:01 AM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.